Celebrating
the 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference is probably not
high on the list of priorities for cryptocurrency enthusiasts this
month. This is an understandable oversight – the price swings,
confusing product launches and whereabouts of Justin Sun are perhaps
more compelling.
But
the birth of international economic cooperation and interoperability
should be recognized as the beginning of a process of economic
reconstruction that has contributed to the global imbalances worrying
the markets today. It could also have set the scene for the solution.
The
bulk of the U.S. stock market may be overvalued, and yields look set
to go even lower – but a large part of the current strain lurks
under the surface of the currency market. A combination of monetary
easing, trade tensions and the threat of military action in the
Middle East is a noxious cocktail for currency holders and hedgers as
international conversions get risky and costly.
Perhaps
because of this, as well as the disquieting brandishing of financial
muscle by the U.S. administration, the chorus of questions about the
role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency is getting
louder.
What’s
more, it has held its leadership role for almost 100 years; the
average global reserve currency lifespan over the past five centuries
is 95 years. Shifting balances are hinting that the dollar’s reign
may soon be up: its share of foreign exchange reserves is over 60%,
while the weight of the U.S. economy in global output has fallen to
less than 25 percent and is likely to continue trending lower.